Will Wu is an entrepreneur and investor, Derivative Trader and a Glorious CoporCormon.
In this guest part, Wu Bitcoin discusses the overall growth of a technology as a technology, using simple search tools and argues that the invetes are collected on the adoption rate.
Google Trends is a great tool to report search trends over time.
As I forgot earlier, Bitcoin could be used to scrape the price and find all the cool data that can be expressed by trading strategies. With this in mind, I thought I would use this tool to investigate the growth of active users in Bitcoin.
For this we check back the search term ‘BTC US’.
If you are a bit active user of the bitcoin, you will be checking the price regularly, and the users can type ‘BTC dollar’.
In this way, I argue that active bitcoin from time to time can be used as a proximity to the user’s growth and engagement. From the above chart, we see that the Bitcoin user base is at the time of exponential growth.
Bitcoin users will double every 12 months
Here we have a frequent, decentralized, growth paradigm with periodic dinosaurs.
As in previous times, these peaks are inline in the bubbles of the price, where the periodicity where more users are online to check the value of their wealth.
The order of growth increases by 3.375 years. Or, to be exact, the user will be doubled every 12 months.
(In honor of Moore’s law, I call this Vu’s law of Bitcoin user growth.)
Bitcoin adoption sworn
But what about our new covenant?
Extrapolating more, it can be used as a proxy to use Bitcoin as a whole technology, and other basic preparation is used as a base hub.
For example, by 2050 10 billion people are expected. If you think Bitcoin’s active user is now 10 million, it will require 100% improvement over 100% coverage.
At the current speed it takes 10 years. However, in the real world all the adoptive curves follow the pattern of ‘S’.
To assume the adoption of Bitcoin, we must be a Simricric S-Curve, and we must adopt 50% in nine years. However, the last half of ‘S’ is 17 years to complete – from 26 years, or nearly a human generation.
Does all today present children in a world that everyone uses Bitcoin?
We’ll see, but the charts tell their story.
The pilot’s baby picture through shutter stark; Charts through Villa Wu